Adrian …

Needs glasses to avoid being blinded by all his bling.

The price was $154 million for seven years, Casey Kelley, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes, and Eric Patterson.  Gonzalez and Crawford cost the Sox a cool $296 million dollars. I guess you could also add the $29.7 million for Buchholz to bring this to $325 million. Wow.

Is Gonzalez worth that kind of green? The only other players who have signed more lucrative deals are:

• AFraud – 275m
• Jeter  - 189m
• Mauer – 184m
• Teixeira – 180m
• Sabathia – 161m
• MannyBManny 160m
• Tulowitzki – 157.5m

That is select company. Since the Sox lost out on Teixeira, that would be a good comp. Here are the numbers:

Adrian Gonzalez

• 24 – 24 HR, 82 RBI, 304/362/500
• 25 – 30 HR, 100 RBI, 282/347/502
• 26 – 36 HR, 119 RBI, 279/361/510
• 27 – 40 HR, 99 RBI, 277/407/551
• 28 – 31 HR, 101 RBI, 298/393/511

Mark Teixeira

• 24 – 38 HR, 112 RBI, 281/370/560
• 25 – 43 HR, 144 RBI, 301/379/575
• 26 – 33 HR, 110 RBI, 282/371/514
• 27 – 30 HR, 105 RBI, 306/400/563
• 28 – 33 HR, 121 RBI, 308/410/552

After his 180 million dollar deal with the Yankees, he produced:

• 29 with NYY – 39 HR, 122 RBI, 292/383/565
• 30 with NYY – 33 HR, 108 RBI, 256/365/481

In the five years from age 24-28, Gonzalez hit 161 HRs and Teixeira hit 177 HRs. Teixeira produced at a better clip then Gonzalez during those years, slugging more and getting on base at a better rate. I expect that the Red Sox are hoping that Gonzalez will have production close to Teixeira’s 29 and 30 season. If so, then the Red Sox will get their money’s worth. From what little I have seen so far, I’d say Gonzalez is on par, if not a tad better, then Teixeira defensively.

Baseball Prospectus has Teixeira as Gonzalez’s #2 comp and they project (at 50 percentile) that Gonzalez will have a 30 HR, 96 RBI season. That would be nice, but not Teixeira numbers for his age 29 season. My prediction? As a Sox homer, I say Gonzalez does a tad better – along the lines of his 70th percentile – 293/391/519 with 33 HR and 100 RBI.

Will he be worth the money? According to Fangraphs value numbers for Adrian, he has been worth 29 and 21 million the last two years. If that estimate of his value is close then I’d say the Sox will do just fine. This will not be an albatross contract.

As an aside, look out Twins fans, don’t get weak in the knees, your season may be in big trouble. This quote from Ron Gardenhire must be very worrisome:

“Honestly, I don’t know how long it’s going to be. We’ve got the DL time, the two weeks, 15-dayer, but I don’t know how long it’s going to be, because this is something we haven’t had to deal with.”

“Actually, his knee is feeling great. It’s the rest of the body that’s kind of taken a hit, and we’ve just got to try to get that all straightened out and whether he’s compensating for one thing, the weakness in the leg that he had surgery on or whatever, we’ve just got to figure it out and back off a little bit here.”

“You know what? It happens. It happens in this game. This is a tough game, and he’s in a tough spot catching. You just have to deal with it and you have to move forward.”

Hello Drew Butera. Those can’t be good words to hear in the Twin Cities.

Rained out …

I don’t think this rain out was a good thing.  The Sox historically have hit well against James Shields On the other hand our pitcher was John Shellackey.  I guess the Sox brass wonder about Shellackey as well. They are going to skip his turn in the rotation.  If only they could do that with Dice K.

Dice K is really getting the treatment in the Boston media.  Some have said he should be traded, some have compared him to John Wasdin, and others wrote that the Sox higher ups have had “internal discussions” about his future with the Sox.  With Dice K’s no trade clause in his contract and $20 million still owed to him, a trade or release might be tough.  Oh, if only Bronson Arroyo was still around.

Tangential thought … Wily Mo Pena is raking in AAA (7 for 17 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB and 3 SO). Hard to believe he is still only 29. It feels like he has been around forever. In 2010 for AAA Portland in 142 ABs his line was .324/.390/.556 with 9 HR.

What is going on down on the farm?  The Pawsox are 3-3. Here is the lineup they used on April 12.

1. Kalish CF
2. Nava LF
3. Reddick RF
4. Navarro 3B
5. Anderson 1B
6. Sutton DH
7. McKenry C
8. Spears 2B
9. Iglesias SS

They will be home this weekend against the Buffalo Bisons. Some young players on the Bisons are Jenrry Mejia and Fernando Martinez.  And, for old time sake, maybe Boof Bonser will make an appearance for the Bisons.

Did you know that Chili (the cheese dog) Davis is the hitting coach?  I did not. He hit 350 home runs in his 19 year career with a line of .274/.360/.451. In 1997, he hit 30 HRs, drove in 90, and had an 85 BB to 96 SO.  Not a bad line for a 37 year old.

In AA, the Sea Dogs are off to a 3-3 start. Alex Wilson, a 2nd round pick on 2009, is off to a 2-0 start with a 2.45 ERA. He is projected to be a late inning reliever.

Tomorrow night’s matchup for the Sox: Brett Cecil v. Clay Buchholz.

The Price was right …

Game 11: Price stymies Sox, 3-2.

David Price outdueled Jon Lester last night and old friend/new nemesis Johnny Damon drove in two with a single during a three run 5th that undid Lester. Lester pitched well except for the fifth inning where he just seemed to lose a bit of control and the Rays dinked some hits off him. Price, on the other hand, looked plain mean – both his stuff and his demeanor. I think it is hard to complain about run production when you have to face Price.

In terms of hitting, Jed Lowrie continues to impress and live up to the hype that followed him for years. Scutaro’s days may be numbered. At a bare minimum, Lowrie needs to start every time a lefty is on the mound. His career stats against lefties? An impressive slash line of .320/.397/.539. I doubt he will be in there tonight against James Shields. He is 1 for 11 with 5 SOs. Scutaro is a bit better – he is 13 for 51 for a .255/.278/.353 line.

Should Darnell McDonald or Mike Cameron play regularly against lefties, while one or two of the lefty triumvirate sits? The stats seem to suggest such a platoon would be wise. McDonald hits at a .293/.352/.448 pace against lefties during his career and Cameron’s line is .268/.371/.492. Who, though, should get platooned? Here are the career lines for our regular outfield starters (and I will toss in Ortiz for good measure):

• Carl Crawford – .268/.314/.379
• Jacoby Ellsbury – .305/.357/.392
• JD Drew – .256/.358/.422
• David Ortiz – .259/.331/.467

McDonald or Cameron should platoon with Crawford, but we all know the $142 million dollar man is not going to be platooned. Surprisingly, Ortiz, based on his career stats, should probably not sit that often against lefties. Except for this info:

• 2010 – .222/.275/.324
• 2009 – .212/.298/.418
• 2008 – .221/.308/.433

Those are Ortiz’s lines for the last three years against lefties. Hmm, perhaps Ortiz should sit in favor if Cameron or McDonald. With these two and Lowrie at Francona’s disposal, I would expect to see more platooning this year then ever if Francona and the Sox stat mavens are true to their blood lines.

Tonight’s match up is John “Shel”Lackey v. James Shields at 7:10. The weather is looking a bit grim for this game, but I am sure the Sox will do everything they can to get it in.

I don’t want to talk about Shellackey and his 15.58 ERA. He has stunk up the joint so far. I just hope that tonight is the night he brings his stats down to something more in line with his career.

The dumbest nickname going is Big Game James. When Shields was given this nickname, the Rays had experienced one good season and no post-seasons. Why you would give someone a nickname like this with no post-season experience is and was beyond me. Three years removed from beginning of this label, Shields’ post-season stats are not good enough to earn him this nickname. He has a 3.68 ERA in 5 post-season starts. Decent, but not really the stuff of legend. And, in the 2008 post-season, he was 0-2 against the Sox in 13 IP, giving up 15 hits and 2 home runs. Heck, he lost to Dice-K in game one of the 2008 ALCS. Big game production? Not really. He is 56-52 in his career with an ERA of 3.68. A nice pitcher, but not one that deserves some legendary status.

Against the Sox, he is 5-9 with a 5.17 ERA. Even better, at Fenway he is 1-7 with a 7.71 ERA. Maybe Shellackey can actually outperform someone tonight.

Slice and Dice …

Game 10: Rays blast Dice K, Sox lose 16-5.

Yikes. Dice K looked okay in the first (despite giving up a homer to Johnny D). But then this happened:

• Double
• Walk
• Single
• Double
• Single
• Homer
• Single

Francona noted that:

“There was one walk and seven balls hit right on the barrel. We love when guys throw strikes, but there were balls middle-middle for seven hitters.”

Yep, either Dice K nibbles or he throws them right down the middle. Either way, not a recipe for success. Curt Young has his work cut out. I’m too depressed about Dice K to say anything more.

What are the odds that Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz would both have triples in the same game? Pretty damn slim since they both hit about one triple per season.

Thank goodness the Sox decided to keep Wakefield on the roster. No need wasting one of our more valuable relief pitchers to clean up the messes left by the starters this season.

Did the Rays know something about Dan Wheeler? He has pitched horribly so far this year.

Tonight’s pitching matchup is a good one. John Lester v. David Price. Two young lefty gun slingers and potential Cy Young candidates for the next decade or so. While Price is off to a rocky start we should not forget that he was 19-6 last year with a 2.72 ERA. This one should be a good pitcher’s duel.

 

That’s been a long time coming …

Game 9: Beckett shuts down Yankees, Sox win 4-0.

Sox take series 2-1.

Red Sox 2-7 overall.

This was the Beckett of 2003. He dominated the Yankees last night giving up 2 hits, walking 1 and striking out 10 in 8 strong innings. The only other time Beckett has gone at least 8 innings and given up no runs and struck out 10 or more batters in the regular season? Exactly 6 years ago on April 10, 2005 against the Washington Nationals.

I was surprised to discover that this outing was one of Beckett’s all-time best (excluding playoffs). He has 11 times in his career struck out 10 or more during the regular season (he has made 248 career starts). To put this stat in perspective, here are the career totals for some others:

• Pedro – 108 times during his career (409 starts)
• Schilling- 93 times during his career (436 starts)
• Clemens – 110 times during his career (707 starts)*

* This shows you how great Pedro was. In 300 fewer starts he equalled Clemens in striking out 10 or more in a game. Pedro never ceases to amaze.

This kind of outing by Beckett is something we should not expect to happen very often. It was nice to see, but Beckett is no Pedro, Schilling or Clemens.

Pedroia for MVP! Against the Yankees in this series he was 9-13 with 2 BB, 3 2Bs, 1 HR, 5 RBI and 4 Runs. He was the straw that stirred the Red Sox. And, he is hitting .400 for the season.  Look out Ted! Plus, Pedroia is the quote machine. He had this to say about being 2-7:

“The way I think about it, we’re four games out of first place with 153 to go. That’s a long (expletive) way away. I’m not very smart, but it looks doable. What do you think?”

The Sox face off against the Rays tonight at 7:10. Dice K v. Jeremy Hellickson.

Here is a troubling stat – Dice K has only gone 7 innings or more and thrown fewer then 100 pitches 3 times in his career; if we expand this to six innings or more and fewer then 100 pitches the total rises to 7. Tonight’s game will be Dice K’s 100th game started for the Red Sox. In fewer then 7% of his starts has he thrown fewer than 100 pitches and gone six innings or more. Who wants to bet on that kind of efficient outing tonight? Not me.

 

Our pitching blows …

Game 8: Buchholz spanked, Sox lose to Yanks 9-4.

Buchholz was bad. I should know, I was there. He lasted 3 2/3 innings and managed to throw 92 pitches. Horrible. Then Doubront and Aceves came in and gave up home runs to Granderson, Cano and Martin (who hit two on the day) to completely salt the game away. The only bright spot was Wakefield who pitched two innings and made ARod look silly.

Pedroia had a great day, most of the other regulars did not. Ortiz and Gonzalez did nothing with the opportunities they had. And, really, Ellsbury looks bad at the plate. I am glad he is batting 9th. Lowrie’s first inning error was costly, but at the plate he had a good day.

Overall, though, a lousy and depressing day. If the pitching staff keeps going like this we will be toast. They take forever on the mound and then refuse to attack hitters. Can we trade our staff for the A’s staff? Please.

The series finale is tomorrow night. Beckett faces CC. This could get ugly. I see a 1-8 start in our future.

Finally, a win …

Game 7: Sox finally win one, beat Yankees 9-6.

But, all is not rosy in Beantown. The hitters finally did some damage, but I guess I am going to have to stick with the Lackey Shellackey label. He stunk. Again. And, he has become the excuse machine.

In regards to the pitching, what has Curt Young done so far? He needs to get these guys to throw strikes and try to get through five innings in fewer then 100 pitches. It is pretty ridiculous so far.

There was a quote from Aceves that I loved:

“That was the most important thing. We got the first win. Now we flip the tortilla.’’

Never heard that, but it is great. I hope he has some more gems like that to share. Now the Sox need to string some wins together.

Old time photos …

This is a diversionary post. No need to talk about Sox v. Yankees. The game just needs to start, NOW.

A new collection of old time baseball photographs are available starting today from the Boston Public Library. They were taken by Leslie Jones a staff photographer of the Boston Herald-Traveler from 1917-1956. They are reminiscent of the Charles Conlon photographs.

The library is uploading its first batch of photographs today and will post more over the coming weeks until all 2,881 photos are online.

Here is a sample.

Here is the BPL’s flickr link. Enjoy.

Squeezed out … or slip sliding away …

Game 6: Indians score on squeeze bunt to beat Sox, 1-0.

Lose series 0-3. Fall to 0-6 on the season.

Better pitching, but nothing to show for it. The Sox made Carmona look like a different pitcher then what the White Sox saw. The Sox managed 4 singles off Carmona and got nothing from them. The Indians managed one fewer hit but Bard’s lead off walk to Adam Everett was death. I mean, come on, walking Adam Everett to lead off the Indians 8th was an unforgivable sin. Everett then stole second, was bunted to third, and then squeezed home. That, by itself, is a tough way to lose.

But no, it gets even better.

Ortiz draws a two out walk. Darnell McDonald gets the call to pinch for Ortiz. Drew then lines one up the middle, it hits Chris Perez, and bounces toward third. McDonald is thrown out trying to scamper back to second after over running the play. I guess for some reason McDonald thought he might be able to go to third? Who knows, but when he decides to scamper back to second he slips and falls trying to get back and old friend Orlando Cabrera tags him out.

Unforgivable.

Unbelievable.

The Sox are cursed! Or, perhaps we should just rename them The Unforgiven. Clearly, the Sox did something to anger the baseball gods. They are 0-6.

Back to Boston for a three game set with the Yankees. First pitch tomorrow is at 2:05 at Fenway. Lackey (0-1, 22.09 ERA) against Phil Hughes (0-1, 11.25 ERA). Only in April can you get starting pitching lines like that.

More of the same …

Game 5: Dice-K does his usual, Tribe tops Sox, 8-4.

Dice-K does his usual – 96 pitches to get through five innings. Will he ever learn? Probably not. Here is a quote from Dice-K regarding this start:

I didn’t feel tired after 96 pitches. I wanted to throw another one or two innings if possible and help the team win.

Didn’t feel tired? I was exhausted watching this start. I sure wish he got tired maybe then he would try to throw strikes.

At least the new guys (Crawford and Gonzalez) had something to show for yesterday’s game. If only the “old” guys would start to show up we might be able to make up for this horrible pitching we are getting. They better turn this around soon or this weekend’s series against the Yankees is going to be ugly. Dice-K or Lackey will have thrown 100 pitches by the end of the third.

Today’s game is a noon start against the Tribe. Lester v. Fausto Carmona.

Carmona was shelled in his last start against the White Sox. He lasted 3 innings and gave up 11 hits and 10 ERs. In his career he is 2-3 against the Sox with a 4.25 ERA in 29 2/3 IP. Last year he was 1-1 against the Sox with a 2.08 ERA. Lester in his career is 3-1 against the Indians with a 4.53 ERA. Last year at the Jake he had one start – 6 IP, 9 Hits, 1 BB, 8 SOs and 6 ERs.

Oh, by the way, 500 more fans showed up for yesterday’s game. Total: 9,523.